The contribution of geothermal power plants to greenhouse gas emission reduction in Indonesia toward the 2030 target

Abstract

Indonesia has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 29%, equivalent to 834 million tons of CO₂, by 2030, with the energy sector expected to contribute 314 million tons of CO₂ reductions. Increasing the share of New and Renewable Energy (NRE), particularly geothermal power plants (PLTP), is a key strategy to achieve this target. As of 2022, the installed geothermal capacity accounts for only 7.8% (2,224.61 MW) of the total estimated potential of 28,500 MW. This study highlights that geothermal power plants generate emissions of approximately 126.2 gCO₂e/kWh, which is significantly lower than coal-fired power plants, with emissions of around 1,050 gCO₂e/kWh. If the planned geothermal capacity of 5,529 MW is realized by 2030, it could potentially reduce emissions by approximately 23.2 million tons of CO₂e annually. However, the current NRE share remains at 11.5%, below the national targets of 23% by 2025 and 31% by 2030. Therefore, accelerating geothermal development is essential, with modular geothermal technology offering a promising solution to support the achievement of Indonesia’s emission reduction targets.